Kalshi

Trump

Will Pete Hegseth be impeached?

Before Mar 1, 202784% Before Jul 1, 202768% Before Apr 1, 202753% Before Feb 1, 202739%

$1,006,792 volume · Closes Jul 1, 2027

Before Jul 1, 2027. If Pete Hegseth is formally impeached before Nov 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

2028

2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party)

Democratic party68% Republican party33%

$859,820 volume · Closes Nov 7, 2029

In 2028. If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Senate

Alaska Senate winner?

Democratic party99% Republican party1%

$50,842,817 volume · Closes Nov 3, 2027

In 2026. If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Alaska for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

NFL

MVP Winner?

Joe Burrow33% Josh Allen20% Brock Purdy16% Jordan Love14%

$44,314,389 volume · Closes Feb 12, 2028

2026-27 season. If Ashton Jeanty wins the Pro Football AP Regular Season MVP in the 2026-27 season, then the market resolves to Yes.

NFL

AFC Championship Winner

Buffalo25% Jacksonville21% Kansas City14% Cincinnati13%

$15,071,874 volume · Closes Feb 22, 2027

2026-27. If Baltimore wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Markets to watch

House 120th Congress: Who will be elected Speaker of the House? Hakeem Jeffries 95% Katherine Clark 2% Steve Scalise 2% $229,016 vol · Closes Jan 3, 2028 · +6 more

Fed Fed decision in December? Cut 25bps 61% Hold 32% Hike 25bps 4% $15 vol · Closes Dec 14, 2026 · +1 more

2028 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Jon Ossoff 26% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 15% Gavin Newsom 11% $293,135,044 vol · Closes Nov 7, 2028 · +57 more

Elections

See all

2028

2028 Democratic presidential nominee

Jon Ossoff 26% Yes No

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 15% Yes No

Gavin Newsom 11% Yes No

$293,135,044 vol +57 more · Closes Nov 7, 2028

Senate

Alaska Senate winner?

Democratic party 99% Yes No

Republican party 1% Yes No

$50,842,817 vol Closes Nov 3, 2027

House

How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

Above 249 98% Yes No

Below 210 1% Yes No

210-213 1% Yes No

$11,189,805 vol +9 more · Closes Feb 1, 2027

Politics

See all

Iran

US-Iran nuclear deal?

Before Jan 20, 2029 41% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2028 31% Yes No

Before Oct 1, 2027 26% Yes No

$6,208,215 vol +5 more · Closes Jan 20, 2029

Iran

Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?

chance

Yes —No —

$2,241,604 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

Iran

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

chance

Yes —No —

$2,048,468 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

Sports

See all

NFL

MVP Winner?

Joe Burrow 33% Yes No

Josh Allen 20% Yes No

Brock Purdy 16% Yes No

$44,314,389 vol +46 more · Closes Feb 12, 2028

NFL

AFC Championship Winner

Buffalo 25% Yes No

Jacksonville 21% Yes No

Kansas City 14% Yes No

$15,071,874 vol +13 more · Closes Feb 22, 2027

NFL

Coach of the Year Winner?

Kyle Shanahan 24% Yes No

John Harbaugh 23% Yes No

Ben Johnson 18% Yes No

$7,558,755 vol +30 more · Closes Feb 28, 2028

Culture

See all

Awards

The Game Awards: Game of the Year

Grand Theft Auto VI 85% Yes No

Resident Evil Requiem 7% Yes No

Crimson Desert 6% Yes No

$2,969,988 vol +23 more · Closes Dec 31, 2027

Awards

Best Picture winner at the 2027 Oscars?

Other 36% Yes No

Film A 27% Yes No

Film B 22% Yes No

$293,295 vol +1 more · Closes Mar 4, 2027

Music

Oscar nominees: Best Music (Original Score)

The Odyssey 93% Yes No

Disclosure Day 80% Yes No

Dune: Part Three 78% Yes No

$61,737 vol +11 more · Closes Dec 31, 2027

Crypto

See all

Monthly

How high will BTC get in November?

Above $82,500.00 19% Yes No

Above $85,000.00 14% Yes No

Above $87,500.00 8% Yes No

$1,241,053 vol +4 more · Closes Dec 1, 2026

One Time

How low will BTC get in November?

Below $72,500.00 100% Yes No

Below $70,000.00 100% Yes No

Below $67,500.00 99% Yes No

$1,148,166 vol +4 more · Closes Dec 1, 2026

Monthly

How high will ETH get in November?

Above $2,500.00 14% Yes No

Above $2,750.00 7% Yes No

Above $3,000.00 4% Yes No

$278,765 vol +5 more · Closes Dec 1, 2026

Climate

See all

Storms

Number of tropical storms in the Atlantic in 2026?

Above 10 15% Yes No

Above 25 4% Yes No

Above 12 3% Yes No

$79,954 vol +5 more · Closes Dec 2, 2026

Weather

US meets its climate goals?

By 2030 18% Yes No

By 2025 8% Yes No

$64,466 vol Closes Dec 31, 2035

Temperature

Hottest year on record in 2026?

36%

chance

Yes 37¢No 65¢

$51,726 vol Closes Jan 13, 2027

Economics

See all

Fed

Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?

Above 2.75% 99% Yes No

Above 3.00% 99% Yes No

Above 3.25% 99% Yes No

$1,133,899 vol +8 more · Closes Dec 9, 2026

Inflation

CPI YoY in November

Above 3.0% 99% Yes No

Above 3.1% 99% Yes No

Above 3.2% 99% Yes No

$870,940 vol +18 more · Closes Dec 10, 2026

Inflation

How high will inflation get this year?

At least 4.5% 9% Yes No

At least 5.0% 3% Yes No

At least 5.5% 3% Yes No

$604,416 vol +3 more · Closes Feb 14, 2027

Commodities

See all

Commodities

Major AI lab IPO before 2027?

chance

Yes 10¢No 92¢

$729,501 vol Closes Dec 31, 2026

Financials

See all

Nasdaq

Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?

28,500 to 28,999.99 8% Yes No

27,000 to 27,499.99 7% Yes No

27,500 to 27,999.99 7% Yes No

$6,263,070 vol +27 more · Closes Dec 31, 2026

Indices

S&P 500 close on Dec 31?

7,000–7,250 35% Yes No

6,750–7,000 28% Yes No

Above 7,250 22% Yes No

$492,086 vol +1 more · Closes Dec 31, 2026

Nasdaq

How high will the Nasdaq-100 price get in 2026?

31,400 or above 15% Yes No

31,600 or above 9% Yes No

32,000 or above 6% Yes No

$222,613 vol +1 more · Closes Dec 31, 2026

Tech & Science

See all

Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?

Anthropic 66% Yes No

Google 18% Yes No

OpenAI 12% Yes No

$1,279,264 vol +6 more · Closes Dec 31, 2026

Space

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?

Above 120 99% Yes No

Above 140 75% Yes No

Above 145 9% Yes No

$841,721 vol +7 more · Closes Jan 1, 2027

AI capability growth this year?

At least 1550 score 58% Yes No

At least 1600 score 6% Yes No

At least 1650 score 3% Yes No

$463,152 vol +2 more · Closes Jan 1, 2027