Climate

Storms

Number of tropical storms in the Atlantic in 2026?

Above 1015% Above 254% Above 123% Above 142%

$79,954 volume · Closes Dec 2, 2026

In 2026. If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 10 storms with maximum sustained windspeeds of 39 miles per hour or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Weather

US meets its climate goals?

By 203018% By 20258%

$64,466 volume · Closes Dec 31, 2035

2025/2030 goals. If the US has 4909.9 million metric tonnes of CO2 emissions or fewer in a year by 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.

Temperature

Hottest year on record in 2026?

36% chance

$51,726 volume · Closes Jan 13, 2027

Whether 2026 global average surface temperature exceeds every previous year on record.

Weather

When will Breckenridge Ski Resort open for the 26/27 winter season?

Before Nov 22, 2026 99% Yes No

Before Nov 29, 2026 99% Yes No

Before Nov 15, 2026 98% Yes No

$27,392 vol Closes Nov 29, 2026

Weather

India meets its 2030 climate goals?

66%

chance

Yes —No —

$13,445 vol Closes Dec 31, 2031

Storms

How many Eastern Pacific named storms will there be this year?

Above 20 25% Yes No

Above 22 9% Yes No

Above 24 3% Yes No

$6,182 vol +1 more · Closes Dec 1, 2026

Weather

EU meets its 2030 climate goals?

45%

chance

Yes —No —

$4,679 vol Closes Dec 31, 2032

Weather

Alta Ski Area snowfall in December 2026

Above 100 inches 53% Yes No

Above 80 inches 51% Yes No

Above 90 inches 51% Yes No

$1 vol +5 more · Closes Jan 1, 2027

Weather

Snow in New York City on Christmas Day?

14%

chance

Yes 15¢No 87¢

$0 vol Closes Dec 26, 2026