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Politics

Iran

Iran

US-Iran nuclear deal?

Before Jan 20, 202941% Before Jan 1, 202831% Before Oct 1, 202726% Before Jul 1, 202723%
$6,208,215 volume · Closes Jan 20, 2029

Before Jan 20, 2029. If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Iran
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
3%
chance
Yes —No —
$1,094,569 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027
Iran
Will Donald Trump visit Iran?
Before Jul 1, 2027 5% YesNo
Before Jan 1, 2027 1% YesNo
$484,185 vol Closes Jul 1, 2027
Iran
Will Iran become a democracy in 2026?
2%
chance
Yes —No —
$345,409 vol Closes Mar 1, 2027
Iran
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran?
Before 2028 15% YesNo
Before 2027 2% YesNo
$247,427 vol Closes Jan 1, 2028
Iran
When will the U.S. and Iran hold a diplomatic meeting?
Before Apr 1, 2027 47% YesNo
Before Mar 1, 2027 41% YesNo
Before Feb 1, 2027 33% YesNo
$77,737 vol +2 more · Closes Apr 1, 2027
Iran
Will Trump meet the Supreme Leader of Iran?
2%
chance
Yes —No —
$47,469 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027
Iran
Will the U.S. and Iran hold a China-mediated meeting before Feb 1, 2027?
9%
chance
Yes —No —
$929 vol Closes Feb 1, 2027