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Politics

Trump

Trump

Will Pete Hegseth be impeached?

Before Jul 1, 202769% Before Apr 1, 202753% Before Mar 1, 202747% Before Feb 1, 202742%

$1,011,592 volume · Closes Jul 1, 2027

Before Jul 1, 2027. If Pete Hegseth is formally impeached before Nov 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Trump

How low will Trump's approval rating get before 2027?

Below 36%66% Below 35.5%51% Below 35%32% Below 34.5%22%

$403,786 volume · Closes Jan 7, 2027

Dec 2025 to Dec 2026. If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is below 37%, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Trump

How high will Trump's approval rating get before 2027?

Above 43%4% Above 44%4% Above 45%3% Above 46%3%

$179,418 volume · Closes Jan 7, 2027

Dec 2025 to Dec 2026. If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is above 43%, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Will a cabinet member be impeached?

Before Jan 1, 2028 96% Yes No

Before Jan 20, 2029 94% Yes No

Before Jul 1, 2027 91% Yes No

$166,195 vol +3 more · Closes Jan 20, 2029

How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?

Between 400 and 449 20% Yes No

Between 350 and 399 17% Yes No

Between 450 and 499 17% Yes No

$63,234 vol +9 more · Closes Jan 21, 2029

How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (11/8-11/14)

At least 1 99% Yes No

At least 10 99% Yes No

At least 20 99% Yes No

$41,877 vol +2 more · Closes in 20h

How many states will Trump visit in Nov 2026?

At least 5 100% Yes No

At least 6 32% Yes No

At least 7 13% Yes No

$32,002 vol +4 more · Closes Dec 1, 2026

FY2026 Commerce Department gifts and bequests (including Gold Card receipts)

Above $1M 98% Yes No

Above $5M 83% Yes No

Above $10M 35% Yes No

$21,021 vol +7 more · Closes Jan 1, 2027

How many times will Trump be impeached in his second term?

At least 1 76% Yes No

At least 2 31% Yes No

At least 3 18% Yes No

$17,770 vol +1 more · Closes Jan 21, 2029

How many Senate Republicans will vote to convict Trump?

At least 1 61% Yes No

At least 2 43% Yes No

At least 3 39% Yes No

$12,643 vol +4 more · Closes Jan 20, 2029

How long will Trump's next Press Secretary last?

At least 7 days 88% Yes No

At least 14 days 83% Yes No

At least 30 days 79% Yes No

$4,939 vol +5 more · Closes Jan 21, 2029

Will Musk deposit SpaceX shares into 10M Trump Accounts?

56%

chance

$4,530 vol Closes Jan 1, 2028

How many House Republicans will vote to impeach Trump?

At least 1 61% Yes No

At least 2 31% Yes No

At least 3 25% Yes No

$4,447 vol +2 more · Closes Jan 21, 2029

How low will Trump's approval rating get during his term?

Below 36% 95% Yes No

Below 35% 92% Yes No

Below 34% 84% Yes No

$1,341 vol +4 more · Closes Jan 27, 2029

How many Truths will Trump delete in Nov 2026?

At least 5 65% Yes No

At least 10 48% Yes No

At least 15 44% Yes No

$1,269 vol +2 more · Closes Dec 1, 2026

How many bills will President Trump sign in Nov 2026?

At least 4 88% Yes No

At least 6 79% Yes No

At least 8 66% Yes No

$994 vol +5 more · Closes Dec 1, 2026

How many Trump Cabinet members will leave before 2028?

At least 4 95% Yes No

At least 2 94% Yes No

At least 3 92% Yes No

$975 vol +9 more · Closes Jan 1, 2028

Will the D.C. Circuit fully affirm the Perkins Coie ruling?

63%

chance

$420 vol Closes Jan 1, 2028

How many Trump Cabinet members will leave before 2027?

At least 1 94% Yes No

At least 2 67% Yes No

At least 3 41% Yes No

$377 vol +2 more · Closes Jan 1, 2027

Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration in 2026?

21%

chance

$120 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027