Tech & Science

AI

Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?

Anthropic66% Google18% OpenAI12% DeepSeek2%

$1,279,264 volume · Closes Dec 31, 2026

On Dec 31, 2026. If OpenAI has the top-ranked model on LiveBench.ai ranked by "Coding Average" on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

AI capability growth this year?

At least 1550 score58% At least 1600 score6% At least 1650 score3% At least 1750 score3%

$463,152 volume · Closes Jan 1, 2027

Before 2027. If an AI model has a score of at least 1520 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.

Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score

above 149015% above 150511% above 150010% above 152010%

$134,800 volume · Closes Jan 1, 2027

Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score. If A model called Gemini 3.5 Pro or greater scores above 1440 on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) Before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Best AI model at year end?

Lab A 46% Yes No

Lab B 30% Yes No

Lab C 16% Yes No

$82,753 vol +1 more · Closes Dec 31, 2026

Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?

16%

chance

Yes —No —

$61,897 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

Google market share this week

Above 10.5% 99% Yes No

Above 12.3% 98% Yes No

Above 13.2% 94% Yes No

$30,393 vol +6 more · Closes in 2d

Will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be first released to the public before 2027?

64%

chance

Yes —No —

$29,634 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?

Before 2028 68% Yes No

Before Jul 1, 2027 54% Yes No

Before 2027 13% Yes No

$28,384 vol +1 more · Closes Jan 1, 2028

When will Anthropic release a personal AI agent?

Before Jan 1, 2027 20% Yes No

Before Dec 1, 2026 17% Yes No

$22,762 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

Meta vs OpenAI: Highest Arena Score at the end of 2026

Meta 83% Yes No

OpenAI 18% Yes No

$15,505 vol Closes Dec 31, 2026

Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026?

OpenAI 92% Yes No

Anthropic 90% Yes No

Xiaomi 58% Yes No

$11,432 vol +15 more · Closes Dec 31, 2026

Anthropic vs Google: Highest Arena Score at the end of 2026

Google 73% Yes No

Anthropic 27% Yes No

$4,540 vol Closes Dec 31, 2026

Alibaba vs Xiaomi: Highest Arena Score at the end of 2026

Xiaomi 52% Yes No

Alibaba 49% Yes No

$3,396 vol Closes Dec 31, 2026

Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?

Before Jan 1, 2029 73% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2028 53% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2027 12% Yes No

$2,199 vol Closes Dec 31, 2028

Astra 6.1+ debut arena score

Above 1420 99% Yes No

Above 1430 50% Yes No

Above 1440 50% Yes No

$1,242 vol +4 more · Closes Jan 1, 2027

Will a Chinese AI model be #1 in 2027

32%

chance

Yes —No —

$117 vol Closes Jan 1, 2028

Fable 5.2+ debut arena score

Above 1490 66% Yes No

Above 1530 53% Yes No

Above 1550 52% Yes No

$83 vol +4 more · Closes Jan 1, 2027

When will AI score above 185 on Epoch Capabilities Index?

Before Dec 1, 2026 99% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2027 — Yes No

Before Feb 1, 2027 — Yes No

$0 vol +2 more · Closes Jul 1, 2027

Top coding AI this month (Arena.ai)

Claude 95% Yes No

Qwen 95% Yes No

ChatGPT 95% Yes No

$0 vol +6 more · Closes Nov 30, 2026

Top Coding AI this week

Claude 95% Yes No

Qwen 95% Yes No

ChatGPT 95% Yes No

$0 vol +6 more · Closes in 2d

Opus 5.6+ debut arena score

Above 1500 50% Yes No

Above 1510 50% Yes No

Above 1520 50% Yes No

$0 vol +4 more · Closes Jan 1, 2027