Tech & Science

Space

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?

Above 12099% Above 14075% Above 1459% Above 1504%

$841,721 volume · Closes Jan 1, 2027

In 2026. If SpaceX has more than 120 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Space

SpaceX Starship 15th launch?

Before Nov 27, 202698% Before Dec 11, 202696% Before Nov 15, 202662% Before Nov 14, 202647%

$150,868 volume · Closes Dec 11, 2026

SpaceX Starship (15th launch). If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 15 After issuance and before Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Space

Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?

17% chance

$101,570 volume · Closes Jan 1, 2030

Before 2030. If SpaceX lands anything successfully on Mars before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Space

How many launches will SpaceX have in November?

Above 6 97% Yes No

Above 7 89% Yes No

Above 8 52% Yes No

$101,083 vol +8 more · Closes Dec 1, 2026

Space

Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?

70%

chance

Yes —No —

$98,856 vol Closes Jan 1, 2030

Space

Will a 1-megawatt data center go live in orbit?

Before Jan 1, 2035 42% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2033 36% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2031 27% Yes No

$48,909 vol +3 more · Closes Jan 1, 2035

Space

Crewed Moon landing before 2028?

24%

chance

Yes 25¢No 77¢

$47,170 vol Closes Dec 9, 2027

Space

Next LandSpace Zhuque-3 launch

Before Jan 1, 2028 96% Yes No

Before Sep 1, 2027 93% Yes No

Before Jun 1, 2027 88% Yes No

$2,317 vol +2 more · Closes Jan 1, 2028